| The monthly BTC chart closes in 4 days so wanted to share a pattern ahead of time that's been forming in plain sight. Twice this year, price pushed above a specific level, then failed to hold it and closed back below by month's end. Same level, twice, months apart. That's a textbook monthly swing failure pattern, and it usually means there's a wall of trapped supply sitting right there. People who bought too early or got caught on the way down tend to sell into any strength that reaches them, which is exactly why price kept getting turned away at the same spot. This month is shaping up differently. Price is currently trading well above that same zone that rejected it twice before, and unlike the previous two attempts, this one isn't just a wick poking through and fading. It's holding, so far with 4 days left before the verdicts in. Richard Wyckoff, the guy who basically taught the entire field how to read tape and supply versus demand a hundred years ago, put a lot of weight on exactly this kind of thing. Not where price touches, where it closes. A wick tells you someone tried and got pushed back. A close tells you the sellers defending that level finally ran out of size to keep doing it. He was studying ticker tape long before candles even looked like this, and the logic hasn't aged a day. Two failed attempts mark exactly where that trapped supply sits, and if this month closes above it instead of rejecting a third time, that's the level flipping from a ceiling into a floor, confirmed by a bullish SFP. Nothing's confirmed yet, there's still time left before the candle closes. But if it holds here, and PA reenters the range again with low volume, thats exactly the combo that means something massively important, (and one thats always resulted in the majority being caught of guard by)... [link] [comments] |
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