 | Previous bull markets have all gone parabolic. Because they recovered from a crash into oblivion. It's the nature of a volatile market. If you get oversold price action that crashes into oblivion, then when the market recovers and is well gain, you can get insane over-buying as a natural reaction. Kind of like "for every action, there is an opposite reaction". Then the insane melt-up crashes back down. Rinse and repeat. What " parabolic" price action?Every cycle has had its final months go into a FOMO run, then a mania melt-up into parabolic price action. Where are we so far?It's hard to say yet. We could be somewhere in between these two sides of the spectrum: 1- We could be on the very flatline before a major parabolic melt-up that will dwarf all this year's price action. 2- Or this could be a milder melt-up like 2021, and we could be already more than halfway into a milder parabolic run. What perfect storm of events could help fuel a melt-up?-Fear desensitization: heavy market fear for over a year, but with no consequences as the price still gets new ATHs: First off, it always helps when the market has already had most of its major fear out of the way. And it might even have been increasingly desensitized from fear. The market has already gone through months in recent years of fears of threats of nuclear war, major recession, tariff wars, Covid variants, economic trouble all around the world, along with monthly crypto FUD we had for over a year, from the crypto banking collapse to the recent XMR fear of a 51% attack. It's been one after another. There's been an overload of fear, now mostly blown over, that will make it difficult to out-do. It might even turn into a boy who cried wolf situation, even if there is legitimate fear coming up. Especially now that people see that despite all the fear we had, it didn't stop Bitcoin from going past $120K. -M1 M2 money supply has been climbing more sharply, and is forecast to continue this trend. While Bitcoin has been falling behind. This is probably the trend that the crypto market has loved following the most, historically. -Fed rate cuts. Fed cuts haven't even started yet. It's unlikely we have even seen the biggest gains yet without any cuts started. - Crypto ETFs, 401Ks, sovereign funds, coporate funds, etc... There's more and more of these big funds loading up on crypto. And some have only just started. It's starting to also look like they might be moving into alts also. -Continuously pro-crypto US government, along with other nations warming up to crypto. The US government has continued its pro-crypto policies, as seen with its most recent bills to help the crypto space. But if you look around the world, it's not the only government that's increasingly more pro-crypto. One interesting area are the Gulf States, which haven't been talked about much, but seem to be increasingly pro-crypto, and are rumored to be working on their own crypto sovereign funds. -FUD and negative narratives are fading from mainstream media, and getting increasingly replaced by hype. There is still the occasional FUD story, but if you look at when mainstream media has talked about crypto these past months, it's decreasingly less about "scam" and "criminal money" narratives, and increasingly more about "big gains", "bull market", "technology", "pro-crypto policies". [link] [comments] |
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