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Anyone else hoping that the 4 year cycle fails?

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I've been thinking about this for a while, and I'm curious to hear what others think.

I understand the theory behind Bitcoin halving and the historical four-year cycle, but doesn't the idea of an asset that consistently follows a predictable four-year pattern undermine confidence in it as a long-term asset/investment?

A strictly time-based bull and bear market would encourage active cycle trading rather than long-term holding. In theory, an investor could simply buy near the cycle lows, sell near the highs, and move their capital into other opportunities during the bear market. If the 4-year cycle is self-fulfilling because everyone believes it, there's actually no incentive to hold it at any time but a short time-frame during a 4 year period.

It also raises questions about Bitcoin's long-term potential. If market participants are incentivized to trade around predictable cycles rather than use Bitcoin in everyday transactions, that could reinforce its role as a speculative asset instead of a actual decentralized digital currency. Businesses and consumers generally prefer stability, upward stability at least, when pricing goods and services. If Bitcoin continues to experience large, cyclical price swings that are widely anticipated, it may be difficult for it to gain widespread adoption for routine purchases/transactions, as both buyers and sellers face significant uncertainty about its value from one period to the next.

submitted by /u/Nonchalant868
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